Archives for January 25th, 2006

Like Natalija Verboten, Slovenia’s population pyramid is dangerously top-heavy.

Slovenia is facing a double whammy in the near future: 1) The lowest fertility rate in the EU, and 2) One of the smallest populations in Europe. It’s clear that there’s going to be a lot less Slovenes in a few years, although estimates vary. Eurostat figures that by 2050, there will be around 100,000 less Slovenes than now. The UN, meanwhile, thinks the population will drop by half a million.

The ones that remain will also be older. By 2050, according to the Slovenian Statistical Office, a full 31% of the population will be over 65. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that people over 80 will be the single largest demographic group in Slovenia by then.

It’s clear that this will cause a host of problems. The question is: How to reverse the trend? Or, perhaps the better question is: Can it be reversed? As Wolfgang Lutz observes here (pdf), so far no country has ever recovered after dropping below the low-fertility "trap" of 1.5. Slovenia crossed that threshold around the time of independence. (See page 13 of the report. And for a detailed discussion of the entire report, see here.)

Of course, most western countries are facing a similar demographic challenge; Slovenia’s small size only makes the problem a big fat mess. For one, if immigration is the solution, what happens when immigrants outnumber Slovenes? And if the work force isn’t artificially bolstered from outside, what will happen to things like pensions?

As Vlad asked a long time ago: What is to be done?